THE WEEK THAT COULD SET UP Q3’S BIGGEST MOVE 🚨 Capital is
Kyle Chassé / DD🐸
Updated at: 2 days ago
{"content":"THE WEEK THAT COULD SET UP Q3’S BIGGEST MOVE 🚨
Capital is shifting. Retail is silent. Bonds are screaming. Here’s what it means
Some major data points and capital flows to track this week:
• Nonfarm Payrolls – Friday
Markets expect +130K jobs.
Last month was a huge beat at +177K.
→ A soft print would support the rate-cut narrative. We hope for this.
→ A strong print? Could delay cuts and push yields back up. Bearish.
• Earnings Season – Wrapped
S&P 500 posted 13.4% EPS growth vs. 11% expected.
→ If this pace continues into Q2, equity valuations start to look more justified and upside opens up.
• $TLT: $1.8B Inflows Last Week
The BIGGEST INFLOW of any ETF.
→ Could be positioning for a bond rally (falling yields).
→ Sign that the market sees the top in rates as being in.
• 5-Year U.S. Treasury Auction 🇺🇸
Saw the STRONGEST foreign demand in HISTORY.
→ Huge international appetite for U.S. credit.
→ Helps keep yields anchored even in a high-issuance environment.
• 🇯🇵Japanese Equities: $12B Outflows
LARGEST EVER weekly outflow.
→ 🇺🇸 Is this capital rotating into U.S. equities? Watch $SPX and $QQQ strength this week…
• Money Market Funds: $19B Outflows
$6.94T STILL sitting in cash, but the trickle has started.
→ If this trend accelerates, it could be fuel for risk assets.
• Retail Trading Flow: Lowest YTD
Retail is on the sidelines right now.
→ Compared to March/April euphoria, positioning is much more cautious.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow: 3.8% Q2 GDP Estimate
→ That’s a hot number. If it proves accurate, the soft landing narrative gets legs AND markets may reprice expectations again.
Bottom Line:
Global capital is moving.
Macro data is in flux.
And the path of yields, growth, and earnings is about to define the NEXT major trend.
Eyes on: $SPX $QQQ $IWM $TLT","images":["https://d2kdcqywr8ua22.cloudfront.net/uploadfile/article/blog/2025062025/06/02/e441018894a747de9c78fd36b17a4b71.jpg"],"tags":[],"tradingPairs":[],"quotearticleid":0}