{"content":"Made in Vietnam. Built in China. The label changed after 2018. The factory did not. • Vietnam’s surplus with the US jumped from about $39B in 2017 to about $104B in 2023, while its deficit with China widened from about $32B to about $77B. • Thailand shows the same rhyme. Rising US surpluses alongside deeper China deficits. • A 2024 study estimated that 20–30% of Vietnam’s exports to the US are minimally processed Chinese goods. Rules of origin are the loophole. Mechanism in plain sight: Shenzhen parts sail to Haiphong or Laem Chabang. Light processing. New paperwork. New origin. The tariff is dodged. The supply chain is not. How to verify without arguing politics: 1.Mirror the customs data on both sides. 2.Track HS codes for components that vanish from China exports and reappear from ASEAN with near identical unit values. 3.Follow the freight paths, the insurers, and the letters of credit. The invoices confess. Stakes for policy and markets: Tariffs moved the map pins, not the production core. If industrial policy targets labels instead of components and capital equipment, the trade balance will keep lying while the cash register stays the same. Fixes that would actually bite: raise value-add thresholds, target upstream machinery and inputs, and publish a live HS code watchlist with unit value triggers. Simple test for 2026: if the US reduces “China” imports but the China deficit of Vietnam and Thailand keeps exploding, did anything real change? Show me the component where the value is truly created.","images":["https://d35imkjvkj28kt.cloudfront.net/uploadfile/article/blog/2025102025/10/26/a0ad8c313edc44879bf923563960722a.png"],"tags":[],"tradingPairs":[],"quotearticleid":0}